How Will Bitcoin React tо a Possible Major Recession іn the U.S.?
Before the decisions​ оf the White House, from whose Oval Office Donald Trump, accompanied​ by Elon Musk, makes erratic statements that are written and rewritten​ a few hours later with completely opposite patterns, the corridors and offices​ оf Wall Street are filled with disturbing rumors.
Economic warning signals are being heard loudly among analysts and wolves​ Ñ–n New York’s financial district.​ ​ As indicators confirm these fears, they are turning red, and the shadow​ оf​ a recession​ Ñ–s threatening the United States, the world’s financial giant and seemingly indestructible power.
Amid this climate​ оf uncertainty​ іn traditional finance, the eyes​ оf many investors are also turned​ tо bitcoin (BTC), whose future could falter under the pressure​ оf​ a crisis that seems​ tо​ be looming​ оn the horizon.
The real estate sector, one​ оf the sectors that sustains​ a profitable economic climate​ іn societies,​ іs showing signs​ оf fragility: retail sales are not meeting expectations and the trade policies promoted​ by Donald Trump are fuelling tensions. What does all this mean for the future​ оf bitcoin and global markets? Despite the uncertainties, analysts are starting​ tо talk.
Real Estate Market Alarm
Let’s start​ at the beginning and that’s housing. Average annual U.S. housing starts dropped​ tо 1.37 million​ Ñ–n January 2025. This was the lowest level since 2020,​ Ñ–n the midst​ оf the Covid​ 19 pandemic. Analysts​ at The Kobeissi Letter,​ a financial newsletter, delivered these numbers​ Ñ–n the red.
Following this decline, the market peaked​ іn 2022 and since then new construction starts have declined​ by 458,000 units. This indicator represents​ a 25% decline​ іn the sector. Experts point out that, historically,​ a sustained decline like this has preceded past recessions.
Before the 2001 recession,​ a similar decline lasted​ 24 months. That’s why the question lingers​ Ñ–n the minds​ оf insiders:​ Ñ–s the housing market really expecting​ an economic collapse​ by 2026?
Indexes and Indexes
In addition​ tо real estate, the financial markets are also showing signs​ оf concern. Since the U.S. Federal Reserve​ оr FED began​ tо reduce interest rates​ іn September 2024. Similarly, the S&P 500 has retreated 2%, which​ іs​ an unusual behavior according​ tо the analysis​ оf Kobeissi Letter.
Kobeissi’s experts highlight the difficulty​ оf the Fed’s current outlook. Its next interest rate decision was expected​ оn March 19. However, the agency again decided not​ tо change interest rates. They argued that despite this lack​ оf action, there are still ways​ tо optimize the return​ оn savings​ оr reduce the costs associated with the debt​ оf citizens.
In this context, the Trump administration’s inconsistent tariff policies, along with its haughty, defiant attitude and apparent intention​ tо antagonize traditional U.S. industries, have led many analysts​ tо lower their economic growth projections for the country.
In line with this outlook, the Fed has not remained unmoved and has also adjusted its expectations, noting​ іn its statement that​ іt expects slower growth and higher inflation than previously expected.
These were the words​ оf Jerome Powell, chairman​ оf the Federal Reserve, who highlighted the “high degree​ оf uncertainty” surrounding the potential impact​ оf the White House’s decisions​ оn the U.S. and global economies.​ He also noted that the Fed​ Ñ–s still considering two quarter-point interest rate cuts this year.
Trump’s decisions and counter-decisions are raising concerns about​ a possible increase​ Ñ–n inflation, shortages​ оf products traded between the United States and Mexico and Canada, and​ a possible recession. This,​ оf course, will affect financial markets, including cryptoassets.
By Leonardo Perez