Bitcoin Price Loses $68,000 as Trump Pulls Back on Polymarket
Polymarket users who give Donald Trump as the winner of the U.S. presidential election have dropped dramatically in just 2 days, as Kamala Harris begins to regain the lead.
Polymarket is a cryptocurrency betting platform that has gained popularity, not only for those who enjoy challenging luck, but also because it has become a tool to measure people’s sentiment towards various political, market and even pop culture scenarios.
On this Sunday, the price of bitcoin continues to lose ground, and investors are moving in a state of considerable uncertainty. The latter, as expected, is related to this week’s US presidential election. On Polymarket and other betting platforms, the pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump is retreating.
This is an unprecedented scenario for the cryptocurrency market, and highlights the climate of uncertainty and fear. For the first time in history, this sector is being presented as a sector of cardinal importance in the politics of the largest economy in the world.
Whether Trump wins or loses is not a simple matter of taste or ideology. This fact could mark the future of cryptocurrencies, considering the tycoon’s campaign promises. These include regulating and including BTC in the country’s strategic reserves. On the other hand, a victory of the Democratic challenger, Kamala Harris, is seen as an extension of the current negative regulatory situation in the North American country.
In short, this is an awkward scenario which keeps investors and gamblers very insecure. On the Polymarket platform, Trump’s lead is significantly decreasing and is now more even with Harris. An analogous situation is taking place on other betting platforms as well.
Trump Loses Ground on Polymarket and Other Platforms
As mentioned above, fear seems to be starting to affect those betting on the US elections. Thus, from completely certain that Trump will win, things start to look more even. On October 29, the right-wing tycoon was favored by almost 67% according to Polymarket. Meanwhile, Harris had 33%.
The data is still favorable to Trump, but with a moderate 53.9%. Harris has 46.2%. On the other hand, on the platform of Kalshi Data, the ratio is 51% to 49% in favor of the Republican.
Meanwhile, the PredictIt platform offers a notable advantage for the leftist Kamala Harris, with a ratio of 56% to 47%. As can be seen, the variation in percentages depends largely on the desires of the particular users of each platform.
Digital gambling is another area where the uncertainty of the polls extends. This factor is a decisive factor in the undermining of the confidence that investors have had until recently. It should be noted that the U.S. presidential election will take place this Tuesday. It is expected that the final results will take some time to be known.
In 2020, the electorate waited 4 days to know the final result that resulted in Joe Biden winning. The waiting period could be a period of tremendous volatility for the most important cryptocurrencies.
The U.S. presidential election has played a starring role at Polymarket. Since January, when the possibility of betting on the winner of the election opened up, Trump has been in the lead most of the time. In fact, in mid-July, 71.5% of the participants in this bet thought Trump would win.
The fact that Americans cannot express their perspective on their country’s presidential election on Polymarket leaves the statistics reflected in this survey in the hands of foreigners. In the end, though, the outcome is in the hands of the voters, not the bettors.
By Leonardo Perez