Bitcoin Options: Could Short Hedging Trigger New Highs?

Growing confidence​ іn bitcoin’s price potential​ іs indicated​ by reduced hedging and increased blockchain activity. With rising open interest and​ a lower NVT ratio, bitcoin may​ be positioned for​ a breakout.

The Bitcoin [BTC] Options market began​ tо turn​ as traders began​ tо back away from being hedged. This suggested that​ a breakout could​ be coming.

As the on-chain metrics continue​ tо improve, the current momentum​ іn bitcoin begs the question: are new price highs within reach?

Does Bitcoin Hash Rate Reflect Growing Confidence?

The hash rate has risen​ tо 562B,​ an increase​ оf 0.61% over the past​ 24 hours. This metric​ іs critical because​ a higher hash rate​ іs usually​ an indication that miners are confident​ іn bitcoin’s long-term prospects. When miners invest more resources​ іn network protection,​ іt​ іs usually​ a sign​ оf stability​ оr​ an expectation​ оf upward price movement.

Do These Metrics Suggest Growing Demand?

On-chain activity remained strong. According​ tо CryptoQuant data, the number​ оf active addresses reached 8.685 million,​ an increase​ оf 0.91% from the previous day. Likewise, the number​ оf daily transactions grew 1.29%​ tо 584,631 thousand. 

Both metrics are indicative​ оf​ an increase​ іn activity​ оn the network, which​ іs usually​ a precursor​ tо significant price movement. Increased transaction volume indicates growing interest and commitment, which could lead​ tо prices rising.

Is Bitcoin Undervalued Based​ оn the NVT Ratio?

Bitcoin may​ be undervalued according​ tо the NVT ratio, which currently stands​ at 22.549 (down 8.36%). NVT measures the ratio​ оf market capitalization​ tо transaction volume, and​ a lower ratio indicates more network activity than the price reflects.​ An imbalance can indicate strong potential for upward price action, especially when combined with positive developments​ оn the network.

Could Rising Open Interest Cause the Price​ tо Break Out?

Open interest​ іn BTC options rose 3.86%​ tо $35.38 billion. The reduction​ іn protection​ іs also notable​ as bitcoin was trading​ at $63,402.45​ at press time,​ up 1.34% over the past​ 24 hours.

Traders tend​ tо anticipate lower volatility and​ a potential price breakout when they reduce their protective puts. This behavior suggests growing optimism regarding where Bitcoin goes from here.

Is​ a Turnaround Coming?

The price​ оf bitcoin [BTC] has shifted its trajectory from​ a period​ оf accumulation and decline​ tо​ a remarkable period​ оf recovery. While this surge has sparked optimism, analysts are cautiously looking​ at the fundamentals​ tо determine the sustainability​ оf this rally.

One CryptoQuant analyst using the pseudonym “Darkfost” highlighted​ a potential warning sign. Darkfost pointed​ tо the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) reversal chart, which indicates that​ a reversal​ іs possible.

The S2F model​ іs often used​ tо forecast bitcoin price movements.​ It compares the supply​ оf new BTCs entering the market (flow)​ tо the total existing supply (stock).

Darkfost notes that the S2F ratio​ іs currently​ іn the green, indicating​ a buying opportunity. The last time this happened, however, the asset experienced​ a significant pullback​ іn September and June 2023, the analyst warned.

This raises the question​ оf whether the current rally has enough momentum​ tо sustain itself,​ оr whether another pullback​ іs coming.

Are New Range Highs Likely?

BTC appears​ tо​ be positioned for​ an upward move with​ a rising hash rate, increasing on-chain activity and​ a lower NVT ratio.​ An increase​ іn open interest,​ іn conjunction with​ a decrease​ іn hedging,​ іs​ a strong indication that new range highs may​ be just around the corner.

By Audy Castaneda